Moderna’s Path to Recovery Hinges on Three Critical Factors

Moderna's shares have plummeted more than 90% since their late 2021 peak, despite the biotech firm's early success with its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. The company now faces a pivotal moment as it seeks to rebound, with three key developments determining its future trajectory.

Revenue from Spikevax remains Moderna's lifeline, generating $114 million in Q2 sales with expectations of $1.5-$2.2 billion for the year. Yet regulatory shifts in vaccination guidelines—now prioritizing older and high-risk populations—threaten to constrain this income stream. The vaccine's reduced addressable market poses significant challenges to maintaining its blockbuster status.

Investors are watching closely whether Moderna can diversify beyond pandemic-related products. The company's ability to pivot will define its next chapter—either as a one-hit wonder or a resilient innovator in the biotech landscape.